Benchmark dependency
A lot of this model runs on external benchmarks. Benchmarks are useful starting points. They are not evidence that your campaign will behave the same way.
Model the full path from marketing spend to pipeline.
Build the funnel backward from your business goal. See what it takes to get there, then pressure-test the assumptions along the way.
A pipeline target without a marketing model is just a number. A media budget without a sales outcome is just a budget.
The problem? You can make the numbers say almost anything.
This tool connects the two and gives you a way to sanity-check the story the numbers are telling you.
14 inputs · 13 sanity checks
$1M ÷ $150K deal size = 7 deals · 7 deals ÷ 25% win rate = 28 opportunities
CPM, CPC and CTR are tied together — pick the two you know, the tool calculates the third.
$65 CPM ÷ (0.81% × 1,000)
These will vary by channel. This is kept high-level, so enter your blended average. The tool uses it to pressure-test the plan.
To hit $1M in revenue, you need $4.2M in pipeline.
28 opportunities × $150K deal size · 4.2x coverage at 25% win rate
Your goal demands
Estimated annual audience capacity (4x/month, theoretical)
This is a modeled expected value, not a guaranteed revenue ceiling. It reflects the average outcome implied by the audience, frequency, CTR, and conversion assumptions.
Required media spend
$328K
40,860 clicks × $8.02 CPC Benchmark
If every assumption holds. Which is a big if.
The tool ran a dozen sanity checks. These are the 4 most likely to sink the forecast, worst first.
A lot of this model runs on external benchmarks. Benchmarks are useful starting points. They are not evidence that your campaign will behave the same way.
Win rate. Given how confident you said you are, a plausible miss from 25% to 18.75% increases required media spend by 36%. Worth validating before you worry about whether CTR is 0.9% or 1.1%.
With a 6-month sales-cycle assumption, the model implies a meaningful period of media investment before closed-won results may materialize. At roughly $27K per month, that could mean around $164K in media spend over 6 months. Actual timing will vary, and deals may close earlier or later.
The model requires roughly 40,860 clicks from an estimated audience of 120,000. That's a substantial volume relative to your audience size. Make sure "reachable audience" means people you can realistically deliver impressions to, and remember that clicks are not necessarily unique people.
The budget covers the goal
$30K/mo funds the ~$27K/mo this goal demands, with room to spare.
The audience can absorb it
At 4x a month, 120,000 people can take ~$374K of media a year. The plan needs $328K.
ROAS is 12.8x
Each media dollar maps to about $12.81 of modeled pipeline. That's pipeline, not won revenue.
Benchmarks
11 inputs come from external benchmarks, not your data.
Win rate
This assumption has a large impact on the model and should be validated.
Sales cycle
A 6-month sales-cycle assumption implies ~$164K of media before closed-won results may show up.
Reachable audience
~40,860 clicks needed from an audience of 120,000.
The offer on the page
A demo request and an eBook download convert very differently, with very different intent. One blended MQL rate hides who's actually ready to buy.
Who's qualifying the leads
How many BDRs are working these MQLs, and how fast? Without the headcount, conversion falls off a cliff.
What counts as a conversion
A form fill, an engaged account, a lead score threshold, a booked meeting? It means whatever marketing says until sales looks at the list.
Campaign shape
TOFU, MOFU and BOFU programs behave differently. Awareness won't close deals this quarter, but without it, BOFU capture gets expensive fast.